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      美國將要面對的不是一次普通的經濟衰退,而是影響深遠的經濟和金融巨變

      美國將要面對的不是一次普通的經濟衰退,而是影響深遠的經濟和金融巨變

      Alena Botros 2022-11-25
      美國經濟可能出現“級聯效應”,即一件壞事可能引發其他壞事。

      經濟學家穆罕默德·埃爾-埃里安出席由劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)舉辦的一項活動。圖片來源:HOLLIE ADAMS/BLOOMBERG—GETTY IMAGES

      投資者和經濟學家們都在發出經濟衰退的警告。但一位重量級的經濟學家幾個月來不斷發出警告信號,他認為這次經濟衰退可能與我們以往所經歷的經濟衰退不同。

      這位經濟學家就是穆罕默德·埃爾-埃里安,他曾經是具有巨大影響力的債券市場參與者太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執行官,還曾經擔任美國前總統貝拉克·奧巴馬的全球發展委員會(Global Development Council)的主席,并且出版了多本經濟學暢銷書。簡而言之,他是目前在世的最優秀的美聯儲(Federal Reserve)和市場觀察家之一,而且他并不喜歡目前的狀況。

      埃爾-埃里安在為《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)撰寫的一篇評論文章中稱,有一種傾向認為經濟挑戰是“臨時的,并且會快速逆轉”。他提到了美聯儲初期的想法,即高通脹是暫時性的,或者認為經濟衰退持續時間較短這種共識。

      他說:“全世界不只是處在經濟衰退的邊緣,而是正在經歷一場影響深遠的經濟和金融巨變?!?/p>

      埃爾-埃里安提到的一種經濟理論指出,當一個經濟周期達到自然終點而下一個周期尚未真正開始時,會發生經濟衰退。但他表示,這一次的情況并不是“經濟車輪”又一次轉動的結果,因為他認為全世界正在經歷的巨變將“延長現有經濟周期的期限”。他重點提到了三個趨勢,表明全球經濟正在經歷巨變。

      改變全球經濟的三個重要趨勢

      埃爾-埃里安稱,第一個變革性趨勢是從需求不足向供應不足轉變。第二個趨勢是央行停止提供無限流動性支持。第三個趨勢是金融市場變得日益脆弱。

      他寫道,這三個趨勢能夠解釋“過去幾年的許多異常經濟變化”。他預測未來經濟沖擊“會變得更加頻繁和猛烈”,經濟不確定性將持續增加。他還表示,分析師們還沒有意識到這一點。

      第一個轉變受到新冠疫情的影響,首先是整個系統突然停滯,然后政府提供刺激或者埃爾-埃里安所說的“慷慨大派送”,導致“需求激增,遠高于供應”。

      埃爾-埃里安指出,隨著時間的推移,逐漸暴露出供應問題的“根源不只是新冠疫情”。俄烏沖突及其導致的制裁和地緣政治緊張以及新冠疫情導致的普遍用工荒,都與供應問題有關。供應鏈的中斷為“近岸外包”創造了條件。近岸外包是一種永久轉變,即公司將生產業務搬到距離母國更近的地區,而不是重建2019年的供應鏈。這從本質上表明“全球化的性質”發生了改變。

      埃爾-埃里安說:“更糟糕的是,全球經濟格局的變化,恰逢各國央行從根本上調整政策的時候?!卑?埃里安幾個月來一直批評美聯儲行動過于遲緩,沒有盡早認識到美國經濟已經出現惡性通脹,后來只能通過大幅加息來彌補損失的時間。

      隨著通脹驟升,美聯儲進行了激進加息,過去四次每次均加息75個基點,使美聯儲基金利率進入3.75%至4%的區間。但埃爾-埃里安認為,這種政策方法的根本性變化引發了第三個問題?!笆袌鲆庾R到,美聯儲正在艱難彌補損失的時間,并且開始擔心美聯儲會繼續維持高利率,可能對經濟有害。結果就是金融市場動蕩?!?/p>

      他表示,市場已經習慣了央行的低息貸款,這種變化所產生的“反常效應”是“全球大量金融活動”涌入資產管理、私募股權和對沖基金等受監管程度較低的實體。自今年低息貸款時代結束以來出現的市場波動,可以理解為大量金融活動正在尋找值得投資的新目標。目前的金融市場非常脆弱。

      他說:“金融體系的脆弱增加了央行工作的難度。美聯儲現在面對的不止是普通的兩難境地,即如何在避免傷害經濟增長和就業的情況下降低通脹,它要面對的是三大難題,分別是:如何降低通脹、如何保護經濟增長和就業,以及如何保證金融穩定?!?/p>

      不只埃爾-埃里安在就全球經濟未來發出一系列警告。資深經濟學家努里埃爾·魯比尼和金融歷史學家亞當·圖茲也警告全球經濟面臨相互關聯的威脅。魯比尼最近出版了一本新書《超級威脅》(MEGATHREATS),分析了全球面臨的10多個嚴重經濟問題,而圖茲則用“多重危機”(polycrisis)“來形容一系列相互關聯的復雜問題”,讓這個詞為世人所知。

      魯比尼最近曾經對《財富》雜志表示,他和圖茲描述了一系列類似現象,但他并未就埃爾-埃里安的批評發表意見。然而,與埃爾-埃里安一樣,魯比尼解釋說,目前全球經濟受到多個因素的影響,而且由于各因素之間相互關聯,因此產生了一種多米諾骨牌效應,可能導致經濟衰退。

      魯比尼告訴《財富》雜志:“加息可能導致股市、債券市場、信用市場和資產價格整體崩潰,反過來造成更多的金融和經濟損失?!钡忉尫Q,加息確實有助于應對通脹,盡管加息可能導致硬著陸,而這一切都是因為對供應鏈的“負面沖擊”。

      埃爾-埃里安總結道,未來,這些變化意味著經濟結果將變得更難預測。而且經濟結果并不一定意味著會是一個簡單的結果,而是一種“級聯效應”(cascading effect)的體現,即一件壞事可能導致其他壞事發生。(財富中文網)

      譯者:劉進龍

      審校:汪皓

      投資者和經濟學家們都在發出經濟衰退的警告。但一位重量級的經濟學家幾個月來不斷發出警告信號,他認為這次經濟衰退可能與我們以往所經歷的經濟衰退不同。

      這位經濟學家就是穆罕默德·埃爾-埃里安,他曾經是具有巨大影響力的債券市場參與者太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執行官,還曾經擔任美國前總統貝拉克·奧巴馬的全球發展委員會(Global Development Council)的主席,并且出版了多本經濟學暢銷書。簡而言之,他是目前在世的最優秀的美聯儲(Federal Reserve)和市場觀察家之一,而且他并不喜歡目前的狀況。

      埃爾-埃里安在為《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)撰寫的一篇評論文章中稱,有一種傾向認為經濟挑戰是“臨時的,并且會快速逆轉”。他提到了美聯儲初期的想法,即高通脹是暫時性的,或者認為經濟衰退持續時間較短這種共識。

      他說:“全世界不只是處在經濟衰退的邊緣,而是正在經歷一場影響深遠的經濟和金融巨變?!?/p>

      埃爾-埃里安提到的一種經濟理論指出,當一個經濟周期達到自然終點而下一個周期尚未真正開始時,會發生經濟衰退。但他表示,這一次的情況并不是“經濟車輪”又一次轉動的結果,因為他認為全世界正在經歷的巨變將“延長現有經濟周期的期限”。他重點提到了三個趨勢,表明全球經濟正在經歷巨變。

      改變全球經濟的三個重要趨勢

      埃爾-埃里安稱,第一個變革性趨勢是從需求不足向供應不足轉變。第二個趨勢是央行停止提供無限流動性支持。第三個趨勢是金融市場變得日益脆弱。

      他寫道,這三個趨勢能夠解釋“過去幾年的許多異常經濟變化”。他預測未來經濟沖擊“會變得更加頻繁和猛烈”,經濟不確定性將持續增加。他還表示,分析師們還沒有意識到這一點。

      第一個轉變受到新冠疫情的影響,首先是整個系統突然停滯,然后政府提供刺激或者埃爾-埃里安所說的“慷慨大派送”,導致“需求激增,遠高于供應”。

      埃爾-埃里安指出,隨著時間的推移,逐漸暴露出供應問題的“根源不只是新冠疫情”。俄烏沖突及其導致的制裁和地緣政治緊張以及新冠疫情導致的普遍用工荒,都與供應問題有關。供應鏈的中斷為“近岸外包”創造了條件。近岸外包是一種永久轉變,即公司將生產業務搬到距離母國更近的地區,而不是重建2019年的供應鏈。這從本質上表明“全球化的性質”發生了改變。

      埃爾-埃里安說:“更糟糕的是,全球經濟格局的變化,恰逢各國央行從根本上調整政策的時候?!卑?埃里安幾個月來一直批評美聯儲行動過于遲緩,沒有盡早認識到美國經濟已經出現惡性通脹,后來只能通過大幅加息來彌補損失的時間。

      隨著通脹驟升,美聯儲進行了激進加息,過去四次每次均加息75個基點,使美聯儲基金利率進入3.75%至4%的區間。但埃爾-埃里安認為,這種政策方法的根本性變化引發了第三個問題?!笆袌鲆庾R到,美聯儲正在艱難彌補損失的時間,并且開始擔心美聯儲會繼續維持高利率,可能對經濟有害。結果就是金融市場動蕩?!?/p>

      他表示,市場已經習慣了央行的低息貸款,這種變化所產生的“反常效應”是“全球大量金融活動”涌入資產管理、私募股權和對沖基金等受監管程度較低的實體。自今年低息貸款時代結束以來出現的市場波動,可以理解為大量金融活動正在尋找值得投資的新目標。目前的金融市場非常脆弱。

      他說:“金融體系的脆弱增加了央行工作的難度。美聯儲現在面對的不止是普通的兩難境地,即如何在避免傷害經濟增長和就業的情況下降低通脹,它要面對的是三大難題,分別是:如何降低通脹、如何保護經濟增長和就業,以及如何保證金融穩定?!?/p>

      不只埃爾-埃里安在就全球經濟未來發出一系列警告。資深經濟學家努里埃爾·魯比尼和金融歷史學家亞當·圖茲也警告全球經濟面臨相互關聯的威脅。魯比尼最近出版了一本新書《超級威脅》(MEGATHREATS),分析了全球面臨的10多個嚴重經濟問題,而圖茲則用“多重危機”(polycrisis)“來形容一系列相互關聯的復雜問題”,讓這個詞為世人所知。

      魯比尼最近曾經對《財富》雜志表示,他和圖茲描述了一系列類似現象,但他并未就埃爾-埃里安的批評發表意見。然而,與埃爾-埃里安一樣,魯比尼解釋說,目前全球經濟受到多個因素的影響,而且由于各因素之間相互關聯,因此產生了一種多米諾骨牌效應,可能導致經濟衰退。

      魯比尼告訴《財富》雜志:“加息可能導致股市、債券市場、信用市場和資產價格整體崩潰,反過來造成更多的金融和經濟損失?!钡忉尫Q,加息確實有助于應對通脹,盡管加息可能導致硬著陸,而這一切都是因為對供應鏈的“負面沖擊”。

      埃爾-埃里安總結道,未來,這些變化意味著經濟結果將變得更難預測。而且經濟結果并不一定意味著會是一個簡單的結果,而是一種“級聯效應”(cascading effect)的體現,即一件壞事可能導致其他壞事發生。(財富中文網)

      譯者:劉進龍

      審校:汪皓

      Investors and economists have been sounding the recession alarm. But one major economist who has seen warning signs mounting for many months says this potential recession is unlike what we’re used to.

      That economist is Mohamed El-Erian, previously the chief executive officer of the massively influential bond-market player PIMCO. He also chaired former President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council and has written several economic best-sellers. Simply put, he’s one of the best Federal Reserve and markets watchers alive, and he hasn’t liked what he’s seen for some time now.

      There’s a tendency to see economic challenges as “temporary and quickly reversible,” El-Erian wrote in a commentary for Foreign Affairs, citing the Federal Reserve’s initial thought that high inflation would be transitory or the consensus that a recession could be short.

      “The world isn’t just teetering on the brink of another recession,” he continued. “It is in the midst of a profound economic and financial shift.”

      He referenced economic theory that a recession occurs when a business cycle reaches its natural endpoint and before the next cycle really takes flight, but he said this time won’t be one more turn of the “economic wheel,” as he sees the world experiencing major changes that “will outlast the current business cycle.” He highlighted three trends that suggest a transformation in the global economy is under way.

      Three major trends transforming the world economy

      The first transformational trend, El-Erian says, is the shift from insufficient demand to insufficient supply. The second is the end of boundless liquidity from central banks. And the third is the growing fragility of financial markets.

      These help to explain “many of the unusual economic developments of the last few years,” he wrote, and looking forward he sees even more uncertainty as economic shocks “grow more frequent and more violent.” Analysts aren’t waking up to this yet, he added.

      The first shift was driven by the effects of the pandemic, beginning with the entire system coming to a halt and stimulus from the government, or what El-Erian called “enormous handouts,” causing “demand surges well ahead of supply.”

      But as time went on, El-Erian said, it became clear that the issue of supply “stemmed from more than just the pandemic.” It’s tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that resulted in sanctions and geopolitical tensions, along with a widespread labor shortage brought forward by the pandemic. These disruptions in supply chains gave way to “nearshoring,” a more permanent shift of companies moving their production closer to home, rather than a reconstruction of the 2019-era supply chain. This essentially reflects a change in the “nature of globalization.”

      “Making matters worse, these changes in the global economic landscape come at the same time that central banks are fundamentally altering their approach,” El-Erian said. As he has been for months now, El-Erian criticized the Federal Reserve in particular for being too slow to recognize inflation entrenching itself into the economy, and then for its steep rate hikes to make up for lost time.

      As inflation soared, the Fed pivoted to aggressive rate hikes—with the last four increases all being by 75 basis points that lifted the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. But this fundamental change in approach led to the third problem, El-Erian writes. “Markets recognized that the Fed was scrambling to make up for lost time and started worrying that it would keep rates higher for longer than would be good for the economy. The result was financial market volatility.”

      Markets have been trained to expect easy money from central banks, he said, and the “perverse effect” of that has been for “a significant chunk of global financial activity” to flood into asset management, private equity and hedge funds, among other less-regulated entities. The gyrations in markets since the easy money era ended this year can be understood as that significant chunk looking for a new home, investment-wise. It’s fragile at this point.

      “The fragility of the financial system also complicates the job of central banks,” he said. “Instead of facing their normal dilemma—how to reduce inflation without harming economic growth and employment—the Fed now faces a trilemma: how to reduce inflation, protect growth and jobs, and ensure financial stability.”

      El-Erian isn’t alone in citing multiple threats to the future of the world economy. The veteran economist Nouriel Roubini and the financial historian Adam Tooze are two other prominent voices warning of interrelated threats. Roubini has just authored a new book called “MEGATHREATS” about no fewer than 10 giant economic problems facing the world, while Tooze has popularized the term “polycrisis” to describe a group of related and compounding problems.

      Roubini himself told Fortune recently that he and Tooze are describing a similar set of phenomena, although he did not touch on El-Erian’s criticisms. However, like El-Erian, Roubini explained the multiple factors at play, and because they’re so interconnected, it creates a domino-like effect, contributing to a possible recession.

      “If you raise interest rates, you can also have a crash of equity markets, bond mark credit markets, and asset prices in general that causes further financial and economic damage,” Roubini told Fortune. Still, he explained that raising rates does help fight inflation, even though it risks the possibility of a hard landing, all of which are triggered by “negative shocks” to the supply chain.

      Moving forward, El-Erian concluded, these changes mean economic outcomes will be harder to predict. And it won’t necessarily mean one simple outcome but rather a reflection of a “cascading effect”—in that one bad event could likely lead to another.

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